Azerbaijan's recent attack seeks to enforce terms in negotiations with Armenia, but also shows a wider aim for a more permanent presence.
The recent large-scale cross-border attacks inside Armenia by Azerbaijan, with reports estimating at least 286 people killed from both sides and hundreds more wounded, highlights the wider picture of a collapsing Russian-led security order in Eurasia.
Coming on 12 September, the attacks coincided with Ukraine's successful counter-offensive in Kharkiv and fresh fighting between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. And Armenian appeals to Russia and its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for support met with muted responses, resulting only in the mobilization of a fact-finding mission.
Several key actors in Eurasia now see Azerbaijan as a critical - or at least important - partner in solving new problems flowing from the war in Ukraine. For the Kremlin, Azerbaijan is a pivotal link for a more isolated Russia seeking new routes to Iran and Asia.
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