Russian disruption in Europe points to patterns of future aggression

From: Chatham House
Published: Fri May 03 2024


EXPERT COMMENT

The case of Britons allegedly working for Russian intelligence is just one example of how Moscow is actively disrupting normal life in Europe and the Baltic region.

A British man has been charged over an arson plot targeting a Ukrainian business after allegedly being recruited to act for the mercenary Wagner Group.

The suspect will face trial under the UK's new National Security Act, in the first case brought under new legislation to crack down on foreign agents. Four other men have also been charged in connection with the arson plot.

But the case should not be seen as an isolated incident. A much broader, and more serious Russian campaign of sabotage is spanning the whole of Europe. More disturbingly, the patterns of behaviour match predictions of what Russia would attempt to do in advance of an open conflict with NATO.

It seems there are few parts of Europe that are not targets. Earlier in April, Germany arrested two individuals on suspicion of planning attacks on behalf of Russia, with a range of targets including US military bases. In Lithuania, Moscow has used organized criminal networks to arrange physical attacks on Russian opposition figures.

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Company: Chatham House

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