A Modi election victory will see Indian foreign policy grow more assertive bringing risk and opportunity

From: Chatham House
Published: Thu May 30 2024


India's democratic credentials have been reaffirmed during the election cycle. But an erosion of India's secular credentials could pose challenges for its global image.

India's behemoth seven-stage election is reaching its climax with the results announced on 4 June. While exit polls will not be revealed until the election process is completed on 1 June, the likely outcome remains a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government.

However, contrary to expectations that the election would be smooth sailing for the BJP, the polls have thrown up a few surprises.

First, voter turnout has been lower than anticipated. Turnout over the first four phases was 66.95 per cent. That is about one per cent lower than the 2019 election.

The fifth phase recorded the lowest turnout so far at 62.2 per cent although the turnout for the recently concluded sixth phase was a slight improvement at 63.37 per cent.

The lower turnout has been attributed to everything from hot weather to voter apathy, although it remains unclear if this will work in favour of the opposition or the BJP.

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Company: Chatham House

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