How foreign policy might impact the outcome of the US election

From: Chatham House
Published: Fri Mar 08 2024


Divisions over key foreign policy issues, from the war in Ukraine to Gaza, could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

In 1992, Bill Clinton's political strategist James Carville quipped that the outcome of US elections was determined by ‘the economy, stupid'. Joe Biden must certainly hope that this remains true because, if so, he would almost certainly be a shoo-in for re-election in 2024.

The facts speak for themselves. Unemployment is at an all-time low, the US economy is growing by about 3 per cent per quarter, wages are going up, and the stock market is going through the roof. Meanwhile, interest rates, which have been at an all-time high for over two years, are finally predicted to come down. And to cap it off, of the top ten corporations in the world right now, eight just happen to be based in the US. As one pundit has put it, if the US was in an economic war with the rest of the world, it would be ‘winning'.

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Company: Chatham House

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