Israel has the capacity to significantly damage Hamas with a ground offensive. But politics will restrain it throughout

From: Chatham House
Published: Thu Oct 19 2023


EXPERT COMMENT

What does victory look like for Israel, and is it even achievable?

There is political logic behind the Israeli government's declaration that it will ‘wipe Hamas off the Earth'.

The Israeli public want to see Hamas destroyed once and for all, given the unprecedented mass murder it just committed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his colleagues, already under intense pressure for allowing the attack to take place (and for putting Israel in a vulnerable position by pursuing anti-democratic policies) were compelled to make big promises. Their maximalist goals reflect the stakes in their fight for political survival.

Israeli security rationale is understandable, too: eliminating your enemy, as opposed to containing them, is the surest way to prevent them from hurting you again.

Many will say there is no military solution to deep-rooted armed insurgencies and what is essentially a political conflict. And in most cases that is true.

The Sri Lankan army did defeat the Tamil Tigers in 2009, but at an enormous cost: it took Colombo 26 years to crush its resilient foe, and the death toll was estimated by the United Nations to be anywhere from 80,000 to 100,000.

That is not to suggest that the Israelis will replicate the Sri Lankans and destroy Hamas, but they certainly have the capacity to significantly downgrade its military capabilities. The question is at what price?

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.

Company: Chatham House

Visit website »