This report presents short-term Scottish prison population projections for the six month period from January to June 2024. They have been produced using ‘microsimulation' scenario modelling which simulates prison arrivals and departures, and estimates the number of individuals in prison.
Prison population projections: February 2024 edition
This report presents short term prison population projections for the six month period from January to June 2024[1]. This is the third issue of projections to be published. They have been produced using ‘microsimulation' scenario modelling which simulates prison arrivals and departures, to estimate the number of individuals in prison on a particular date in the future. The first issue of the Scottish prison population projections[2] provided a detailed overview of the modelling technique used.
The projections are produced to help inform decision making, planning and policy development. They do not take account of the complexity of the prison population (as this is not the intention) and are meant for high level policy development rather than for the day to day management of those in prison.
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